Last Updated: October 26, 2021

Lucky Match

Introduction

Lucky Match is a side bet found on tables labeled 21st Century Baccarat. The base game is the same as conventional baccarat. One of the side bets found on this game is the Lucky Match. It pays based on the poker value of the combined cards between the Player and Banker hands.

The side bet may be found at the Bicycle casino near Los Angeles.

Rules

1. The rules of the base game are the same as conventional baccarat, which I assume the reader is familiar with.
2. As usual in baccarat, eight decks of cards are used.
3. The pay table is shown below. All pays are on a "to one" basis.

Pay Table

Event Pays
Five or six of a kind 250
Double triplets 100
Four of a kind 30
Full house 15
Three of a kind 6
Two or three pairs 4

Analysis

The following table shows the number of permutations, probability, and contribution to the return for all possible outcomes of the Lucky Match bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 8.89%.

Return Table

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Five or six of a kind 250 356,942,987,520 0.000071 0.017853
Double triplets 100 616,417,689,600 0.000123 0.012332
Four of a kind 30 12,273,961,559,040 0.002456 0.073667
Full house 15 40,022,630,768,640 0.008007 0.120106
Three of a kind 6 207,858,985,697,280 0.041585 0.249511
Two or three pairs 4 385,294,498,430,976 0.077084 0.308334
Loser -1 4,351,974,838,370,300 0.870674 -0.870674
total   4,998,398,275,503,360 1.000000 -0.088870

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Charlie Patrick for confirmation the math on this page.